IMF forecasts 1.3% contraction for Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026
On Oct. 22, 2026 the IMF said output across the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan (MENAP) is expected to contract by 1.3% in 2026, citing the region-wide economic impact of the Iran-related war and warning that further disruptions to energy production or shipping could worsen the outlook.
The desk brief
On Oct. 22, 2026 the IMF said output across the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan (MENAP) is expected to contract by 1.3% in 2026, citing the region-wide economic impact of the Iran-related war and warning that further disruptions to energy production or shipping could worsen the outlook.
The IMF regional downgrade implies weaker demand and fiscal strains across oil exporters and importers in MENAP, which may widen sovereign risk premia for vulnerable issuers in North Africa. Higher energy-price volatility or prolonged shipping disruptions could further pressure external financing and current accounts; conversely oil importers with strong remittances and tourism may show relative resilience. This is an announced macro forecast, not a market price move.
Monitor the IMF’s full regional outlook publication and any country-level revisions (next IMF country reports or updates) and near-term developments in energy trade routes.
Sources & verification
Developing storyDeveloping story supported by 2 independent public publishers; further confirmation is being sought.
- IMF sees 1.3% contraction in Pakistan, Middle East and North Africa in 2026reutersSource published (opens in a new tab)
- IMF projects 1.3 percent economic contraction across Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan - Daily Timesdailytimes.com.pkSource published (opens in a new tab)
Public references supporting this brief.