Ongoing Israel–Hamas War: Higher Risk Premiums and Commodity Channel Raise Dispersion Between Oil Exporters and Importers

Persistent conflict in the Middle East continues to elevate global uncertainty and risk premia, a dynamic flagged by regional analyses through October 2026. The immediate market transmission is twofold: potential upward pressure on oil and gas prices and a broad EM risk‑premium that can widen spreads on sovereign and corporate dollar debt. For African credits, oil and gas exporters — notably Angola and Nigeria — stand to benefit from any sustained commodity-price uplift through improved fiscal receipts and external balances, which would reduce near‑term rollover pressure on external amortisations.

Conversely, net importers such as Kenya, Egypt, Morocco, Senegal, Ivory Coast and Ethiopia face a channel of weaker fiscal space and higher import bills; higher oil or gas prices would raise domestic subsidy or energy subsidy risks, pressuring local currency reserves and increasing the refinancing premium on both local and external curves. Separately, the conflict’s effect on global risk appetite is likely to lift spread premia across EM, hitting higher‑beta African sovereigns and corporates first.

Credits that have relied on 'carry' and global portfolio flows are more vulnerable to repricing than larger, more liquid borrowers; exporters with commodity buffers will outperform importers if commodity moves are sustained. The desk will watch oil and gas forward curves and changes in portfolio flows as the conditional triggers that determine whether exporters' improved receipts offset the wider EM risk repricing.